Nevada’s gaming sector and Las Vegas tourism recorded simultaneous gains in February, marking the first such occurrence this year and offering a positive outlook for the industry.
Key Takeaways
* Nevada’s gross gaming revenue saw a modest increase, supported by Las Vegas tourism’s first monthly gain in over a year.
* Baccarat performance significantly boosted Las Vegas Strip results, offsetting a decline in sports betting, particularly for the Super Bowl.
* Analyst projections for Q1 earnings are shifting positively for Las Vegas operators, with high-end and locals-focused properties anticipated to show strong performance.
February Performance: Gaming and Tourism Align
For the first time in 2024, data sets for gaming in Nevada and tourism in Las Vegas both indicated gains in the same month. According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, the state reported gross gaming revenue (GGR) of $1.24 billion in February, representing a 1.5% increase year-over-year. The Las Vegas Strip’s GGR remained largely consistent year-over-year at $696.2 million, with its fiscal year-to-date performance tracking at a slight decrease of 0.9%. Clark County and the state overall are also within 1% of last year’s pace.
Nevada’s steady gaming performance was supported by Las Vegas’ first monthly tourism increase in at least 15 months. February’s visitation total reached 3.03 million, a 2% increase year-over-year, as reported by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. For the Strip, average daily rates and revenue per available room increased by 4% and 6%, respectively.
Air Travel and Labor Market Notes
Despite positive gaming and tourism figures, air traffic experienced a slight decline. Total traffic at Harry Reid International Airport decreased by 3% last month, influenced by a 10% slide in international travel. The bankruptcy of budget domestic carrier Spirit Airlines reduced its traffic by 72% year-over-year, while top Canadian airlines WestJet and Air Canada both saw declines exceeding 20%. Regarding the labor market, Nevada’s Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation has not yet released monthly reports for this year, with the January report expected in April.
Strip Dynamics: Baccarat Surges, Super Bowl Slumps
Examining the gaming results more closely, the Las Vegas Strip’s performance was bolstered by a significant increase in baccarat revenue. The Strip generated $119.9 million from baccarat in February, a 37% increase over the previous year. Baccarat, a favored game among high-rollers, often exhibits high volatility due to large average bet sizes. Over the last three months, the Strip’s baccarat revenue is down 21%, though the 12-month figure shows a more moderate decrease of 3%.
In contrast, Super Bowl LX results were not favorable for Nevada bookmakers. The state’s total sports betting GGR was $35.3 million, down 14% from last year. GGR from football betting specifically slid nearly 70% year-over-year to just $4.3 million. Of these totals, the Strip accounted for $15.3 million in GGR and $2.9 million from football. The total handle for the Super Bowl was $133.8 million, the lowest recorded in at least a decade.
Regional Market Insights and Regulatory Challenges
Beyond the Strip, most other markets tracked by the Nevada Gaming Control Board reported positive results for the month. Reno saw a 7% increase year-over-year to $60.6 million and is tracking positively for the fiscal year thus far, up 4.5%. Boulder City ($77 million, +3.5%) and the Las Vegas locals market ($148 million, +3%) both experienced positive months, while downtown Las Vegas ($69.8 million, -4%) showed a decline.
Declines in sports betting could be partly attributed to issues with prediction markets. Nevada was unable to prevent Kalshi from offering Super Bowl contracts but has since secured a temporary restraining order against the platform. Kalshi was compelled to restrict Nevada users from trading sports, entertainment, and election contracts until its next hearing on April 3 in federal appeals court.
Q1 Earnings Outlook for Casino Operators
With the first quarter of 2026 nearing completion, Las Vegas casino operators will soon face scrutiny from analysts after a challenging 2025. Major Strip companies—Wynn, MGM, and Caesars—experienced varying degrees of pressure on their Las Vegas segments last year. Caesars, in particular, has been the subject of ongoing speculation regarding a potential sale. Conversely, locals-focused operators such as Boyd and Red Rock have reported strong performance as value-conscious customers gravitate towards their offerings.
In a recent note to investors, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon indicated that the positive February data has shifted Q1 earnings estimates “to the upside for Vegas segments.” Beynon stated, “We continue to expect higher-end properties to outperform, including WYNN over MGM/CZR.” While acknowledging the long-term Las Vegas thesis remains intact, Beynon expressed concern that leisure and international softness might persist this year after three years of post-COVID growth, leading to a reclassification of Vegas to the “least favourite Gaming sector” in Macquarie’s ’26 Gaming Primer. Conversely, strength in non-Strip performance led Beynon to believe that Red Rock and Boyd are positioned to outperform current 1Q26 consensus for their respective retail segments.
I remember the first time I saw Kai Tak, Hong Kong’s gambling city, I thought I was in a fairy tale. All the lights blinking, the music and the monumental buildings, what 9-year-old wouldn’t think they’ve come to a magical place? It was my father who brought me, dragging me along and when inside I was hit by the smell of frying duck. As soon as I hit 21 I returned to Kai Tak, A bit nervous to see if my mind had embellished the memory, but it hadn’t. Kai Tak was still a magical place. I decided I wanted to spend as much time as I could at this place, so I did.
